KEY TRENDS, THREATS AND RISKS OF POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND SECURITY DEVELOPMENT IN THE WORLD IN 2020-2025 HORIZON

Abstract

In the next 10-15 years, global development will be determined by several
key factors: environmental degradation, competition for energy resources, rise of
the new powers – the non-Western actors of global politics, economy and security,
a new configuration of global governance in which the European Union will strive
to assume a more prominent place, a number of new threats such as proliferation
of weapons of mass destruction and of new weapon technologies, and, last but not
least, global economic instability resulting from recurrent economic crises of the
existing global economic model. Environmental degradation, linked with the
phenomenon of global warming, will generate serious security threats, e.g. the
growing deficit of drinking water in some regions that will affect hundreds of
millions of people. The competition for energy resources, especially oil and gas,
will grow fiercer and determine the policies of the principal global security actors.
In this context, the fact that a considerable proportion of the world’s energy
resources is located in politically unstable, insecure regions is and will remain a
serious risk factor. Global politics will be more influenced by the emerging
powers, both global (China) and regional (India, Brazil), a fact that will present a
challenge e.g. for the political strategy of the European Union. The global role of
the EU may also be undermined by the negative demographic trend: population
aging and decline in Europe.